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Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T01:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36076/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the south in SOHO LASCO imagery faintly in white light imagery and southeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery; seems to be associated with a relatively minor eruption with southern deflection just west of AR 3938 (N20W01) near central meridian but with lower confidence potentially associated with AR 3939 (S18E33) as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, and best in 304 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T10:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36117/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=881.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T04:56Z
2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=860.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T10:14Z
2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=917.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T21:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-31T10:28Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =16.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0
(kp)90=7
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T08:56Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T16:59Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-02T08:52Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T10:12Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T00:31Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 23.00 hour(s)
Difference: 5.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-30T16:44Z

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